1.3.5 Evaluating these Alternative Courses
Having sought out alternative courses and examined their strong and weak points, the following step is to evaluate them by weighing the various factors in the light of premises and goals. One course may appear to be the most profitable but require a large cash outlay and a slow payback; another may be less profitable but involve less risk; still another may better suit the company in long–range objectives.
If the only objective were to examine profits in a certain business immediately, if the future were not uncertain, if cash position and capital availability were not worrisome, and if most factors could be reduced to definite data, this evaluation should be relatively easy. But typical planning is replete with uncertainties, problems of capital shortages, and intangible factors, and so evaluation is usually very difficult, even with relatively simple problems. A company may wish to enter a new product line primarily for purposes of prestige; the forecast of expected results may show a clear financial loss, but the question is still open as to whether the loss is worth the gain.
Because the number of alternative courses in most situations is legion and the numerous variables and limitations are involved, evaluation can be also exceedingly complex. Due to these complexities, the newer methodologies and applications of operation research and analysis are helpful. |