Notes
Slide Show
Outline
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In Search Of A Key Role
 On The Global Scene
  • Dr. Fathi A. El-Nadi
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"The Global Scene"


  • The Global Scene
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Globalization
(A Creative / New Perspective Definition)

  • “The process of  developing an international
  • system, that gradually turns world countries
  • into a Borderless Market, governed by the
  • global supply and demand, and controlled
  • by a Central Global Authority of the rich
  • Countries.”
  • FAN
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Globalization & The Westernization of The World
  •  It started towards the end of the 19th Century.
  • Trying to make the Western & European lifestyle A world Reference (Casual Wear, Fast Food, Entertainment).
  • Turning borders into a porous texture so that penetration  becomes easier (Legislation: GATT).
  • Making Globalization Club Membership compulsory.
  • Control the critical resources of all countries through global entities (World Bank, WTO, ILO).
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The Script
(The 3 Scenarios)
  • 1. Political ( ‘All–Size’  version of democracy for all regimes)



  • 2. Economic ( world economic system governed by central bureaucracy/Dollarization of  prices)


  • 3. Cultural (lifestyle, education, culture, shaping perception & stereotyping)
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The Script
( Facts & Numbers)
  • World banking & trading is controlled by 750 International companies.
  • 15% of world population live in rich countries & control 80% of  the World GDP.
  • 20% of world countries control 85% from the world GDP, 4% of world Trade & 85% of world savings.
  • 56% of world population (low income countries incl. India & China = 3 billion people) control only 5% of  the WDP  (less than France’s GDP)
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(cont.) The Script
  • The GDP of Africa (600 m) is no more than half of that of Texas.
  • Low & Medium Income Countries such as Communist Countries (85% of world population) gets only 20% of WDP.
  • 40% of world population live in the most impoverished countries & get no more than 3% of world trade (after 20 years of Globalization).
  • Total debt of Developing Countries doubled 32 times than in 1970 (2 Trillion Dollars)
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(Cont.) The Script
  • 358 Billionaires own the equivalent of what 2.5 Billion people own (A little less than 50% of World population).
  • Multinational Companies (MNCs) control ‘Service Economy’ through ‘licensing’ (International Distribution Network).
  • Industrial Countries spend a Billion Dollars/day to subsidize the ‘Surplus Product’ of their people (The US alone spend 560 Billions / Most of which goes to Agricultures ).
  • As a result of subsidizing The US cotton farmers (3.5 Billion $) the prices of cotton by 25% which greatly hurt Egypt.
  • Distribution of  World Income (1993) was:
    • Third World Countries 17,1%
    • Eastern Europe & Russia 4`4%
    • Rich Countries (1st World) 78`5%
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Imposed Challenges
On Low Income Countries
  • Expanding poverty.
  • The fast pace of change (Change Management gap)
  • Multinational & Super National Corporations.
  • Digital & Quantum Divide (Productive Knowledge Societies / Atom Computers / Head States: Difference between a Pre-Historic Man & Einstein )
  • Technopoly (Impact of technology on Culture & Civilization: Big Fight to maintain values & Norms)
  • Technocracy Threat ( Whoever becomes more advanced in GNR can almost control the world : Food , Feelings & Behavior)
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(cont.) Imposed Challenges
  • A wide technological gap (GNR: Genetic Eng., Nanotechnology, Robotics)
  • A new criteria in the measurement of power (Cognitive National Information Reserve : CINR)
  • Escalating unemployment rates & social instability  (1% increase in unemployment results in break-ins by 14%, Robbery 11%, Car Stealing 8%, and homicide 5%) Even Japan & Europe (10% Unemployment)
  • Threat of local currencies devaluation.
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"The Arab World Scene"


  • The Arab World Scene
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Switching On The Lights
( The Cultural Scene)

  • 22 Contries/280 m people (Size of the US/ One quarter of India/One fifth of China)
  • Only o.6% use the Internet (Arabs represent 5% of World population)
  • Only 1.2% have a PC.
  • Only 10% of the 1st World expenditure on education
  • Only o.14% of GDP is spent on R&D (Far less than one quarter of the World Average: Japan 2.9%, Israel 2.53%, Cuba 1.62%)
  • Only 330 books translated/year (one fifth of Greece / Accumulated  since Maamoun Age 100`000  equal to Spain’s in a year)
  • More than 60 Million illiterates (Majority  women)
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(cont.) Switching On The Lights
( The Economic Scene)
  • Average GDP is 3,3 (1975-1998) after it had reached 8.6% (1975-1980)
  • GDP of all Arab countries is 531.2 Billion $ (less than Spain alone: 595.5 Billion)
  • Average Unemployment is 15% (among the highest in the world)
  • Average Growth Rate is less than 5% (Minimum required to absorb existing and future unemployed)
  • One of each five live on less than 2 Dollars/day (impoverished level as set by the World Bank)
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(cont.) Switching On The Lights
(HR Efficiency)

  • Worker contribution to GDP/Productivity (4%) is less than half of two developing countries like South Korea & Argentine (1998-1999).
  • Comparing this productivity (10 Arab Countries) with fast developing countries (1980-90/ 1990-97) we find out that :
    • China 15%
    • South Korea   8%
    • India   6%
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(cont.) HR Efficiency
  • Industrial productivity in the nineties was the same as in the sixties (UNEDO).
  • Annual Income/individual in 1997(1653 $),i.e. annual growth of only 0.7% (1990-1998).
  • Average unemployment rate is 10%.
  • By 2010 Five Million work opportunities need to be created to absorb the new entrants.
  • Unemployment could reach 25% (if existing rates stay as is)
  • Women political representation is the lowest in the world (3.5% in the Parliament) against (4.2% in East Asia - except China, 12.7% in South East Asia and the Pacific, and 12.9% in Latin America).
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"The Egyptian Scene"

  • The Egyptian Scene


  • (Within A Global Context)
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 Opportunities & Threats
1. Anticipated Opportunities

  • Geniuses represent 1% of any People (We should have 600,000 of them waiting to be discovered)
  • Enlarged market opportunities.
  • Consumer welfare (reduction of customs duties)
  • Increased competition & enhanced quality.
  • Transfer of innovation through information technology.
  • Gains from Free Capital Movement.
  • Enhanced labor mobility.
  • Enforced HRD plans to cope with the change (Need for IT qualified personnel).
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(cont.) Opportunities & Threats
2. Threats
  • Inequitable income distribution (Free Market Dynamics).
  • Greater economic fluctuation (Removal of currency control).
  • Collapse of national industries (inequitable competition).
  • Erasing the ‘National Identity’ & ‘Distinctive Culture’ (shaping perception through entertainment & media).
  • ‘bullying’ tendencies on the part of the richer & stronger (trying to impose compliance standards).
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Direct Negative Impact
  • Increasing unemployment rate (11.8% in 1995 / total # 1.780m in 2001/ average annual increase of 6.6%) excluding ‘Discouraged unemployment’.
  • Male biasness in the employment market.
  • Lower demand due to the educational level of the unemployed (new skills required).
  • Average Inflation (2000-2001) 2.4% (went wild  now)
  • Local currency escalating devaluation.
  • Trade Balance (Deficit) -9,354  m$ (2001).
  • Total Foreign Debt 29% of the GDP.
  • New cultural standards imposed on local identity
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Joining The Race
(Closing The Digital Gap)
  • The National Program for closing the Digital Gap through:
    • Building human capacity in education & training.
    • Expanding connectivity to the masses.
    • Making access to information tools more affordable.
    • Creating opportunities for SMEs through E-Commerce.
    • Establishing the Information Technology Institute (ITI)
    • A Computer for each University Student Project at marginal installments.
    • Equipping all schools with computers.
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(cont.) Closing the Digital Gap
    • National IT Training Program (5000/year).
    • Training the government employees.
    • Completing the infrastructure of the ‘E-Government’.
    • Serious attempts to copy the ‘Silicon Valley’ experience (President inaugurated ‘ The Smart Village ‘ on 21 Sep / will attract local & international investors).
    • Number of IT companies in Egypt is increasing (1036 with a working capital of almost 2 Billion $)
    • Egypt can ‘Export’ IT experts within 2-3 years.
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What We Do Now ?
  • Short Term
  • Abolish all adverse investment laws & regulations (OSS).
  • Extent tax incentive for investors who employ a minimum number of employees (500 and above/Existing incentives are not enough)
  • Attracting Mid/Heavy industries investors (To build strong economy).
  • Buy ‘Know How’ / start Joint Ventures with affordable manufacturers of advanced technology (India, China, Malaysia)
  • Extend realistic  loans to new graduate & help them with ‘visibility studies’ to start their own team businesses.
  • Maximum support for SMEs to grow and absorb more employees (more than 86% of GDP).
  • Invest in & export the ‘Intellectual Capital’ (IT field).
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(cont.) What We Do Now ?

  • Mid – Long Term
  • A national plan to upgrade education quality to include new global trends while maintaining the national identity (all stakeholders represented).
  • An international campaign to build ‘A State Of Art’ Training Centers to complement the educational system (soft & hard modern trends & skills).
  • New policy setting Media standards emphasizing deep rooted values & norms of our country.
  • Political reform to ensure ‘authentic democracy ’, freedom of expression, and voting participation.
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(cont.) What We Do Now ?
(Mid & Long Term)
  • 5. Draw a clear economic 5 year reform plan to ensure steady agricultural self sufficiency (we import 70% of  our bread loaves).
  • 6. Integrate into a ‘Unified Arab Entity’ (Trade, transfer of knowledge, mobility of labor) through The Arab League.
  • 7. Enhance products quality & explore global market opportunities.
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"In A Nutshell"


  • In A Nutshell
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Dual New Global Standards
(A Visionary Road-Map)
  • Freedom vs. Directive/Authoritarian.
  • Knowledge vs. Wealth.
  • Work vs. Favoritism (due to authority and/or wealth)
  • Team-Work vs. Individualism.
  • Corporate vs. Individual entities.
  • Creativity vs. Fellowship/Consumption.
  • Social ‘Collective Contract’ vs. territorial loyalties.
  • Efficiency vs. ‘Wasta/Mahsoubia
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Qualifying For A Good Citizen
(The Pathwayers’ Role)

  • Assuming a  positive, Proactive attitude (onlookers get leftovers).
  • Belief in the power of knowledge (A global standard).
  • Belief in Team Playing (Outcome more than individual Input)
  • Belonging to legitimate ‘Pressure Groups’ (only way to affect change).
  • Creative thinking to overcome problems (Avoid dead-ends).
  • Appreciating the value of ‘Being Productive’ (The more self-sufficient, the more independent we become).
  • Practice your Citizenship Rights. (Use your ‘ Voting Right ‘ / Have effective representation to voice out your opinion).
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(Cont.) The Pathwayers’ Role
  • Believe in on-going training, life-time education & self-investment (New skills are required for new generation of workforce/Yields the highest ROI)
  • Value knowledge & experience adventures (60,000 acres available in Toshki)
  • Start new ‘Communities’ outside Cairo & Alexandria (The future)
  • Turning working circles into ‘Learning Organizations’  (We need to close an existing Generation Gap)
  • ‘Organized Campaigning’ (A civilized way to express opinion & affect  Evolution).
  • Not mixing-up technological advances with Civilization (Technology can be bought until  becoming able to produce).
  • Rediscover ‘Root Values’, promote & make them ‘A way of Life’ (The only insurance policy against Globalization side-effects).
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Remember

  • Your Forefathers Had Made The Past.
  •  Don’t Give up Your Right to Make The Future.
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"Thank You & God Bless..."


  • Thank You & God Bless You All
  •     Fathi A. El-Nadi